Ho Chi Minh City: Abundant Supply Puts Domestic and Imported Fruits on a “Low-Price Race Track”

(TBTCO) – In line with the post-Tet trend of abundant essential food supplies, the fruit sector is also seeing vibrant wholesale activity in Ho Chi Minh City’s market.

Notably, not only are many domestic fruit items being offered at promotional prices, but imported fruits are also actively participating in the city’s “race to the bottom” in pricing.

Specifically, observations at shopping centers, supermarkets, and convenience stores such as Co.opXtra, Co.opmart, Satramart, Satrafood, MM Mega Market, and Bách Hóa Xanh reveal that a wide range of domestic and imported fruits are part of ongoing discount and promotional campaigns, running from right after the 2025 Lunar New Year until now.

Among local fruit products, red-flesh watermelon has dropped from 19,000 VND/kg to 9,000 VND/kg; orange-flesh watermelon from 35,000 VND/kg to 32,000 VND/kg; king oranges are now at a promotional price of 17,000 VND/kg; green-skinned melons at 23,000 VND/kg; and green-peel pomelos at 52,000 VND/kg.

Other local fruits such as durian, avocado, banana, passion fruit, mango, and rambutan are also in abundant supply and prominently displayed on shelves in modern retail channels throughout Ho Chi Minh City.

Imported fruits are similarly well-stocked, with prices significantly lower than the same period last year. For instance, some retailers in Ho Chi Minh City are offering imported cherries for just 160,000–350,000 VND/kg, while in previous years the same fruit typically cost around 500,000 VND/kg depending on origin.

At other retail locations in the city, imported fruits such as red grapes are being sold (non-discounted) at 169,000 VND/kg; seedless black grapes at 179,000 VND/kg; and Gala apples at 49,000 VND/kg.

At MM Mega Market, a Kiwi Festival is currently underway, featuring green kiwifruit priced at 45,000–69,000 VND/kg and golden kiwifruit at 65,000–109,000 VND/kg.

Explaining the reason behind the lower prices of domestic fruits this year compared to post-Tet periods in previous years, Mr. Thành Trung, a trader at the Thủ Đức Agricultural Wholesale Market (Ho Chi Minh City), shared that consumer demand before and during the Tet holiday was slightly lower than the same period last year, resulting in significant inventory that now needs price cuts to stimulate consumption.

To ensure sufficient supply for the Tet season, many retailers and traders increased stockpiles. However, as fruits are perishable items with shorter shelf lives, they must be sold within a limited timeframe to maintain quality.

As for imported fruits, Ms. Hoàng Anh, owner of a fruit store specializing in imported goods on Nguyễn Đình Chiểu Street (Ho Chi Minh City), noted that rising incomes have led consumers to become more selective, especially regarding food safety.

As a result, imported fruits—particularly those sourced from the U.S., Europe, and New Zealand—have become increasingly popular due to their perceived safety and quality.

Retailers and fruit businesses in Ho Chi Minh City also acknowledge that while food and essential goods have maintained sales volumes in recent years, they haven’t been immune to consumers’ growing tendency to tighten spending amid economic uncertainty and rising market prices.

Therefore, aside from product quality, having the lowest possible prices is essential to attracting customers in this competitive “race.”

Additionally, with Vietnamese consumers increasingly prioritizing high-quality local products, price competition is seen as a key strategy for foreign goods to gain market access.

According to the Ho Chi Minh City Department of Industry and Trade, the market before, during, and after the 2025 Lunar New Year saw a plentiful supply of goods. Stabilized-price items played a leading role and helped ensure consistent supply to the market.

To continue maintaining supply after the Tet holiday, the Department has directed retailers and price-stabilization enterprises to stimulate consumer demand through various promotions and discounts to meet essential shopping needs.

Sources: Finance Times – The Official Publication of the Ministry of Finance of Vietnam

What Do We See Before the 'Storm' of Imported Agricultural Products Flooding into Vietnam?

Vietnam continues to be a key market for many imported fruits and meats, which are entering the country like a "storm." Moreover, in the near future, Vietnam plans to boost imports of agricultural products from the United States to balance bilateral trade. This poses significant pressure on Vietnam’s agricultural sector, requiring it to enhance its competitiveness to avoid losing ground on its "home turf."

Mr. Jesse White, International Marketing Director of the Australian Table Grape Association (ATGA), identified Vietnam as one of the core markets for Australian fresh grapes.

Vietnam: A Target Market for Foreign Producers

According to Mr. White, the demand for high-quality fresh grapes in Vietnam is expected to grow strongly in 2025, reflecting Vietnamese consumers’ increasing preference for premium food products.

At an Australian fresh grape promotion event held in Ho Chi Minh City in late March 2025, representatives of ATGA shared that the association is intensifying marketing campaigns in supermarkets and retail outlets. Their goal is to bring Australian grapes closer to Vietnamese consumers, capitalizing on the rising trend of premium fruit consumption. This is part of a long-term strategy to establish Australian grapes’ presence in the Vietnamese market.

Vietnam has been Australia’s fourth-largest export market for grapes for the past three years, with export turnover reaching AUD 63 million. According to Mr. Jonathan Saw, Trade Counselor at the Australian Trade and Investment Commission in Vietnam, Vietnam is currently Australia’s seventh-largest agricultural export market. In 2024 alone, Australia exported AUD 2.7 billion worth of agricultural goods to Vietnam, with fresh fruit being a key growth driver in bilateral trade.

Mr. Saw also revealed that the Australian government is working closely with state governments to bring more premium agricultural products to Vietnamese consumers.

In addition to Australia, many countries strong in fresh fruit and agricultural exports view Vietnam as a high-potential market for expansion.

This is clearly reflected in fruit and vegetable import data. In March 2025, Vietnam imported fruits and vegetables worth USD 172.1 million (approx. VND 4.4 trillion), up 4.2% from the previous month and 6.5% compared to March 2024. For the first quarter of 2025, total imports reached USD 577.8 million (VND 14.8 trillion), an increase of 17.2% year-on-year.

The major suppliers of fruit and vegetables to Vietnam include China, the United States, Australia, Chile, Myanmar, South Korea, India, Cambodia, and Thailand. Notable imported items include milk grapes from China, cherries from Chile, and apples from the U.S. and Australia. Particularly, milk grapes—priced at just tens of thousands of VND per kilogram—have rapidly appeared across online marketplaces and traditional wet markets.

Surging Meat Imports

Besides fruits, meat imports have also seen significant growth. While March 2025 data has not yet been released, in the first two months of the year, Vietnam spent over USD 373 million (VND 9.5 trillion) on meat imports, up 40.5% year-on-year. India was the largest supplier, followed by Russia, the U.S., Brazil, Canada, Poland, and the Netherlands.

Growing U.S. Agricultural Imports to Balance Trade

In the near future, Vietnam may increase imports of U.S. agricultural products to balance bilateral trade. During a meeting with the U.S. Ambassador in late March 2025, Minister of Agriculture and Environment Đỗ Đức Duy stated that Vietnam is finalizing technical procedures to approve additional U.S. fruit imports, including mandarins, plums, and lemons.

The draft regulations outlining import conditions for these fruits are expected to be completed in April or May 2025, demonstrating Vietnam’s proactive effort to diversify agricultural imports and meet the growing demand of domestic consumers.

Concern Over Losing Ground at Home

From an expert perspective, expanding the list of U.S. imported fresh fruits will contribute to increasing the U.S.'s agricultural export value to Vietnam. In 2024 alone, U.S. fruit and vegetable exports to Vietnam reached nearly USD 544 million, up 64% compared to 2023. This growth rate far outpaces the general import growth of fruits and vegetables (23.7%), indicating a surge in demand for American fruit in Vietnam.

Beyond fruits and vegetables, Vietnam also imported nearly USD 1.5 billion worth of corn and soybeans from the U.S. last year, mainly for the industrial animal feed sector. Vietnam also approved 60 out of 61 applications for importing genetically modified food from the U.S., including key items like corn and soybeans.

Notably, at the end of March 2025, the Ministry of Finance proposed a draft decree to amend Decree 26/2023, aiming to adjust import tariffs for certain items, including U.S. agricultural products. The proposed changes include:

• Reducing MFN (Most Favored Nation) tariff for frozen chicken legs from 20% to 15%
• Pistachios from 15% to 5%
• Almonds from 10% to 5%
• Fresh apples from 8% to 5%
• Cherries from 10% to 5%
• Raisins from 12% to 5%

According to Mr. Nguyễn Quốc Hưng, Director General of the Department of Tax Policy Supervision (Ministry of Finance), these changes aim to improve trade balance with partners and encourage businesses to diversify imports—ultimately benefiting domestic consumers.

From a strategic trade standpoint, Dr. Chu Thanh Tuấn, an economic expert, commented that Vietnam’s move to increase agricultural imports from the U.S. helps ease trade tensions amid tighter U.S. trade policies. He noted that one effective way to reduce U.S. pressure is to expand imports of surplus U.S. agricultural products like soybeans, beef, corn, and wheat.

A ‘Storm’ That Demands Strategic Change

The surge in agricultural imports—especially with increased imports from the U.S. to balance trade—could create serious pressure on Vietnam’s agricultural sector. To avoid being outcompeted in its own domestic market, Vietnam’s agriculture industry needs strategic transformation to improve its competitiveness through product quality and reasonable pricing.

Rather than focusing solely on exports, domestic producers must also solidify their share of the local market to avoid losing it to foreign businesses.

Sources: VNBUSINESS

ADB Forecasts Vietnam’s GDP Growth at 6.6% in 2025

According to the forecast, Vietnam's GDP growth will moderate to 6.6% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026, while inflation for this year may rise to 4%.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) held a press conference to announce the April 2025 edition of the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) report on April 9th.

At a press conference held on April 9 to announce the April edition of the Asian Development Outlook (ADO), the Asian Development Bank (ADB) projected that Vietnam’s GDP will grow by 6.6% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026, following a strong expansion of 7.1% in 2024.

The report noted that global trade tensions may negatively impact Vietnam’s export-oriented manufacturing sector this year. Although the total import-export turnover in the first quarter of 2025 reached USD 202.52 billion, up 13.7% year-on-year, ADB expects merchandise trade growth to slow to about 7% in both 2025 and 2026.

Forecast for Vietnam's GDP Growth and Inflation in 2025 and 2026.

Notably, the resurgence of protectionist trade policies in the United States is expected to negatively affect global demand for goods produced in Vietnam, especially as the country maintains a significant trade surplus with the U.S. As a result, industrial growth is forecast to decelerate to around 7% in 2025.

Furthermore, inflation is projected to rise to 4% this year and 4.2% in 2026, driven by geopolitical tensions, increased domestic consumption, and efforts to accelerate public investment disbursement.

According to Mr. Shantanu Chakraborty, ADB Country Director for Vietnam, strong trade performance, export manufacturing recovery, and positive foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows are the key drivers of Vietnam’s economic growth in 2024. “However, new U.S. tax policies and ongoing global uncertainties could pose significant challenges to growth this year,” Mr. Chakraborty noted.

The international economic environment remains volatile, with risks such as escalating tariffs, retaliatory measures, the prolonged Russia–Ukraine conflict, and tensions in the Middle East. These factors could hinder global economic recovery in the short to medium term, especially for export-reliant economies like Vietnam.

Additionally, economic slowdowns in two of Vietnam’s key trading partners—the United States and China—may also affect the country's economic outlook.

The ADB forecasts that the growth of developing Asian countries will slow down in 2025 and 2026.

Regarding FDI trends, Mr. Nguyễn Bá Hùng, ADB Chief Economist in Vietnam, highlighted that U.S. tariffs of up to 46% could discourage investors, potentially reducing FDI inflows into Vietnam.

However, Mr. Hùng suggested that to mitigate growth risks in 2025, Vietnam should stimulate domestic demand through increased government spending on infrastructure, technology, and innovation. This would not only boost the competitiveness of local enterprises but also enhance the country’s attractiveness to foreign investors.

“The VND 500 trillion credit package recently announced by the Government for strategic infrastructure, science-technology, and innovation is a timely move, demonstrating proactive efforts to deal with escalating tariffs in the near future,” he emphasized.

Experts also recommend that Vietnam should continue to increase its value-added contribution in the global supply chain to minimize economic risks. As the global economic landscape shifts, Vietnam’s role in global value chains is also evolving. Identifying key challenges and obstacles will be critical for long-term development planning.

“FDI enterprises involved in Vietnam’s global supply chains will be a vital foundation for export diversification in a narrowing international market,” Mr. Chakraborty commented.

Global trade tensions will impact Vietnam's production and import-export activities.

Additionally, ADB experts acknowledged that the Vietnamese Government has been implementing reforms to enhance governance and foster economic growth. If these reforms are carried out consistently and swiftly, they will create favorable conditions for private sector development, support macroeconomic stability, and ensure sustainable growth in the medium and long term.

The U.S. announcement of new tariffs in early April could significantly impact Vietnam’s growth during the 2025–2026 period. “In this context, maintaining economic stability, protecting vulnerable groups, and ensuring employment are top priorities. Therefore, additional fiscal stimulus packages are crucial to boost domestic demand in the coming period,” Mr. Chakraborty recommended.

Sources: VnEconomy